- What caused this new record global average temperature?
- Was this expected?
- What can be expected in the coming days and weeks?
- Is 2024 likely to be the warmest year on record?
- What was the previous record?
This article was originally published on 23 July 2024, and has been updated on 24 and 25 July 2024 to reflect the latest statistics and records.
The Earth has just experienced its warmest day in recent history, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) data. On 22 July 2024, the daily global average temperature reached a new record high in the ERA5 dataset*, at 17.16°C. This exceeds the previous records of 17.09°C, set just one day before on 21 July 2024, and 17.08°C, set a year earlier on 6 July 2023.
Based on data released by C3S on 25 July, Monday 22 July was the hottest day in the ERA5 dataset, which begins in 1940. The temperature on 23 July was very similar, at 17.15°C**.
While the temperature on 21 July 2024 (17.09ºC) was almost indistinguishable from the previous record of 17.08ºC reached on 6 July 2023, the difference between these and the new record temperature (17.16°C) reached on 22 July is larger than typical differences in day-to-day variations among alternative datasets.
What really stands out is also the difference between the temperatures since July 2023 and all previous years. The data can be explored in Climate Pulse, the C3S application that provides historical and near-real-time temperature data from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset.
Daily global average surface air temperature for 2024 (red), 2023 (orange), and all years between 1940 and 2022 (grey). Red shading indicates the difference between the daily global average temperatures from 2023 to 2024, for days where 2024 has been warmer than 2023. Data for 22 July 2024 is preliminary. Data source: ERA5, via Climate Pulse. Credit: C3S/ECMWF
Before July 2023, the previous daily global average temperature record was 16.8°C, on 13 August 2016. From 3 July 2023 to 23 July 2024 there have been 59 days that have exceeded that previous record, distributed between July and August 2023, and during June and July so far in 2024.
Commenting on the record set on 21 July 2024, C3S Director Carlo Buontempo said: "On July 21st, C3S recorded a new record for the daily global mean temperature. What is truly staggering is how large the difference is between the temperature of the last 13 months and the previous temperature records. We are now in truly uncharted territory and as the climate keeps warming, we are bound to see new records being broken in future months and years."
Following the new record for 22 July 2024, Carlo Buontempo added: “We now have a new record, and its value is sufficiently large to indicate with some confidence that this has exceeded the record set only last year. The event is still ongoing and it is possible the date of the peak may still change, but our data suggest we may see slightly lower temperatures in the next few days.”
Read more about the range of uncertainty of these data records.
Analysis of the years with the highest annual maximum daily global temperatures shows that both 2023 and 2024 have seen annual highs substantially above those recorded in previous years.
Another sign of the global warming trend is the fact that the ten years with the highest annual maximum daily average temperatures are the last ten years, from 2015 to 2024.
The difference between the lowest ranked of those ten years (2015) and the previous record prior to 2023 (13 August 2016) was 0.2°C. The jump from the 2016 record to 2023 is 0.28°C, and to the new 2024 record is 0.36°C, highlighting how substantial the warmth of 2023 and 2024 is (explore the data in the interactive chart below).
Annual maximum daily global average temperatures in the ERA5 record for the past 50 years (1974 to 2024). The ten highest annual maximum temperatures are highlighted in dark red. Data for 2024 are available up to 23 July 2024 at the time of publishing. Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.
What caused this new record global average temperature?
The global average temperature tends to reach its annual peak between late June and early August, coinciding with the northern hemisphere summer. This is because the seasonal patterns of the northern hemisphere drive the overall global temperatures. The large land masses of the northern hemisphere warm up faster than the oceans of the southern hemisphere can cool down during the northern summer months.
The global average temperature was already at near-record levels in recent days, slightly below the levels of 2023, after being at record levels for the time of year for more than a year.
Our analysis suggests that the sudden rise in daily global average temperature is related to much above-average temperatures over large parts of Antarctica. Such large anomalies are not unusual during the Antarctic winter months, and also contributed to the record global temperatures in early July 2023.
What’s more, Antarctic sea ice extent is almost as low as it was at this time last year, leading to much above-average temperatures over parts of the Southern Ocean.
Was this expected?
As the global average temperature was already at near-record levels during the first half of July, close to the temperatures seen at this time of year in 2023, and the global average temperature typically reaches its peak at this time of year, it is not completely unexpected that we are seeing global average temperatures of this magnitude.
What can be expected in the coming days and weeks?
Associated with the rise in temperature that resulted in the new records on 21 and 22 July, the highest temperatures were expected to occur on 22 or 23 July. In the days following this peak, the temperature is likely to go down slightly. Further fluctuations are possible in the coming weeks.
As the annual maximum global average temperature can occur any time between late June and the middle of August, the current conclusions are preliminary as we follow the evolution of the climate in near-real-time. In 2023, there was a second peak in the daily global average temperature on 4 August (reaching 17.05°C) that came close to the record set on 6 July 2023. C3S will continue monitoring the situation, providing more information in further updates as needed.
Is 2024 likely to be the warmest year on record?
The ranking for 2024 will largely depend on the development and intensity of the next phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (i.e. when and how strongly La Niña develops). To date, 2024 has been sufficiently warm for it to be quite possible that the full year will be warmer than 2023, but the exceptional warmth of the last four months of 2023 makes it too early to predict with confidence which year will be the warmer.
What was the previous record?
The previous highest daily global average temperature was 17.08°C, a record set on 6 July 2023 as part of a long streak of record-breaking daily global average temperatures in July and August 2023. Prior to the long streak of record-breaking temperatures in July and August 2023, the highest daily global average temperature in the ERA5 dataset was 16.80°C, on 13 August 2016.
*ERA5 is the fifth generation of the ECMWF reanalysis dataset. It covers the period from 1940 to the present day. Read more.
**The data for 23 July 2024 (17.15ºC) is virtually tied with 22 July (17.16ºC) due to the range of uncertainty of daily average temperatures in the ERA5 dataset. Read more.
For further information, see ‘How are daily averages calculated?’ in the Climate Pulse FAQs.
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